Danger Abounds
It’s officially a Presidential election year now and all the campaigns are in full gear. Ever since Donald Trump came down the escalator to announce his candidacy for the White House back in 2015, American politics has been in a constant state of turmoil. There’s always a certain amount of chaos surrounding presidential elections, but injecting Trump into the mix was like punching a hornet’s nest. The 2020 election only ratcheted up the crazy when President Trump attempted to change the results of the election and stop the peaceful transfer of power. However, at least with Trump out of the picture there was the hope that 2024 might usher in a return to normalcy. Yeah, no.
Facing multiple investigations and likely criminal charges Trump announced his run for the presidency on November 15, 2022. That pretty much set the trajectory for the 2024 campaign. What seemed likely in 2022 became a reality in 2023 as prosecutors indicted Trump in four different cases totaling 91 criminal charges, in addition to the civil cases pending against him. By comparison, the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections seem tame and straightforward.
The goal of this article is to really consider the practical ramifications of the situation we’re facing over the next eleven months. Primarily concerning Trump, but also the risk of the Democrats running an 81-year-old man for the White House.
The Unthinkable Becomes Reality
Imagine trying to explain Donald Trump’s campaign to Americans from the past. There’s a candidate who had affairs on all three of his wives, has been impeached twice, and faces 91 criminal charges, including attempting to overthrow the government. The assumption would be that any one of those facts would doom their campaign. Yet, with the Iowa caucuses quickly approaching, it seems a near certainty that Trump will get the Republican nomination. Polling indicates that Trump has the support of over 60% of Republicans, despite his legal troubles. His closest rivals are stuck around 12%. Given how much of the evidence against Trump is already publicly known, it’s hard to imagine any new revelations effecting his support.
There’s at least a chance a conviction and potential prison sentence might give even Trump’s diehard supporters pause. The problem is, by the time the first trial concludes, Trump will likely already have the nomination wrapped up. The trial over Trump’s action on January 6th, is scheduled to begin on March 4th, and the Super Tuesday primaries are March 5th. At that point states will have awarded approximately 44% of the total delegates. The rules for awarding delegates vary from state to state, but most states divide delegates based on the proportion of the vote the top candidates receive. So, by March 5th, it’s likely that Trump will have most, but not all the delegates needed to secure the nomination.
If the trial begins on time and wraps up quickly with a conviction, it’s at least theoretically possible the momentum could swing to another candidate, denying Trump the nomination. However, the odds of that happening are remote. Only a week after Super Tuesday three more states have primaries, and a week after that five more including Florida, Ohio, and Illinois. So, by the 19th of March approximately 64% of the delegates will be awarded. Without a conviction before that date, odds are Trump will have the nomination sewn up.
Inevitability
The first problem with getting a conviction by that date is the case is currently under appeal. Trump’s legal team is arguing he has Presidential immunity for any action he took on January 6th. Although this appeal is almost certain to fail, by the time it works its way to the Supreme Court, even if expedited, it’s unlikely the trial will begin on March 4th. It’s also probably not going to be a quick trial. The Federal prosecutor, Jack Smith, will have a lot of evidence to present and it’s likely Trump’s defense will make every attempt to prolong the trial.
Even if Trump doesn’t have 100% of the delegates he needs by the end of the trial, even with a conviction, he’ll likely continue to receive a steady stream of delegates as the primaries continue. There’s simply no plausible scenario in which Trump doesn’t get the delegates he needs to secure the nomination unless something drastic and unexpected happens in the next couple of months.
Rounds 2, 3 and 4
There’s also the possibility the jury will find Trump not guilty. He does have a plausible defense. He didn’t personally go to the capital, and he never explicitly told the crowd to do anything illegal. Of course, there’s also considerable evidence his intention was to prevent Congress from certifying the results of the election, but the case isn’t a slam dunk. However, even if the jury acquits Trump of all charges in that trial, the trial for hiding his payoffs to porn stars is scheduled to start on March 25th, and the trial for illegally retaining classified documents at Mar-a-largo is set to begin May 20th.
A delay in the first trial may delay the other trials as well, yet it’s still likely they’ll occur prior to the Republican convention. Unlike the Jan 6th trial, both of these cases seem almost certain to end with convictions. There’s no plausible defense for claiming the payments to porn stars weren’t a campaign expense or for hiding classified documents from the national archives. It’s a near certainty Trump will go into the Republican convention with both, enough pledged delegates to secure the nomination, and facing prison sentences on his criminal convictions.
Only weeks after the convention Trump is scheduled to go on trial for election interference in Georgia. Similar to the Jan 6th trial, Trump does have a logical defense in that case. On the infamous call to the Georgia Secretary of State, he didn’t explicitly ask him to commit a crime. This is only my opinion, but it seems this is a pretty strong case. In his role as President of the United States he strongly pressured Georgia officials to change the results of the election, even after they told him there was no evidence of voter fraud. That’s pretty hard to defend. Still, his lawyers only need to open the slightest wiggle room for one sympathetic juror to hang their hat on.
Unanswerable Questions
Will his fanatical supporters continue to support him if he’s convicted of multiple crimes? It seems likely at least some of his less committed voters would peel off and vote for a third party, or perhaps even Biden. Of course, political pundits have been wrong before about what it would take for Trump to lose the loyalty of his supporters.
Trump’s campaign raises all kinds of questions that don’t have clear answers, particularly if he wins. Would his appeals continue like a normal defendant while in office? Can a president be imprisoned for crimes they were convicted of prior to becoming president? If some of the trials are delayed until after January 20th, 2025, could the trials take place after he’s president? Can a president pardon himself? It’s a near certainty addressing these questions would consume much of Trump’s time in office. It also seems inevitable he would use his position as president to interfere with the prosecution of these cases. He’s practically said as much in recent months.
There’s also the question concerning if the events of Jan 6th was an insurrection, and if Trump engaged in, or gave aid to it. Most legal experts are predicting the Supreme Court is unlikely to remove Trump from the primary ballots on this ground. However, a conviction on the charges surrounding Jan 6th might complicate that. It could also result in Trump being ruled ineligible to actually assume the office after winning the nomination.
The Republican Sinking Ship
For all these reasons, it’s easy to see a movement within the Republican party to deny Trump the nomination, even if he has the required delegates. It’s not impossible. There are rules in many states binding delegates to vote for their designated candidate, but delegates have gone rogue before. However, it’s unlikely this would work. Trump has firm control of the party’s grass roots. It would be difficult for another candidate to get the votes to take the nomination from him. Even if successful, Trump would certainly sue the party, throwing the entire nominating process into turmoil. This is such unchartered territory I don’t think we can rule anything out, but it seems unlikely a Hail Mary at the convention would derail Trump’s nomination.
There’s also Robert F. Kennedy Jr to take into consideration. He’s currently polling over 20%. This isn’t that unprecedented. We’ve had third party/independent candidates before who polled well early in the process, only to fade before the election. Ross Perot jumps to mind. When it comes to casting ballots, people don’t want to waste a vote on someone they believe can’t win. It’s not inconceivable that convictions on multiple felonies and facing a prison sentence, Trump could become the candidate voters deem unelectable. In that situation RFK Jr. might become the Biden alternative, possibly even taking votes from Biden himself.
If RFK Jr does win some states, we would run a serious risk of a contingent election. That’s when no candidate gets the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the election. In that instance the House of Representatives would vote to decide the next president with each state getting one vote. The Senate would elect the vice president. It’s been about 200 years since the last time this happened. The lack of clear rules in how to conduct a contingent election means there’s a whole series of dramatic issues that could arise in this situation. This could be an article in itself, you can read more about some of the potential issues in this article.
The Democratic Elephant
Finally, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the elephant in the room for the Democrats. Joe Biden is 81 years old. That presents a serious risk for the Democrats and the potential for unprecedented situations on their side of the equation. Republicans have been trying hard to portray Biden as having dementia for a while, but there’s no evidence to lend any credence to that idea. However, it’s undeniable that the risk of having some form of dementia goes up dramatically after age 80. What would happen if Biden had a moment similar to what Mitch McConnell had in August when he froze up in the middle of a press conference and had to be quickly led away by his staff? McConnell is also 81 years old.
Dementia isn’t the only risk. He could have any number of incapacitating ailments that might cause voters to rethink voting for him. Of course, that could happen to any candidate regardless of age, but it becomes a greater risk when a candidate has already past the average life expectancy. Concern Biden might have health problems during a second term is already giving some voters pause about voting for him.
It’s not hard to imagine a situation where Biden shows early signs of dementia and the administration is split on whether or not to remove him, throwing the Executive branch into turmoil. After all, people with dementia often can’t recognize the condition in themselves. It’s also worth mentioning that Trump is 77 years old, so these concerns are relevant to him as well. This is yet another factor that could throw votes from both parties to RFK Jr. who is a relatively youthful 69 years old.
Where Do We Go from Here?
It’s not my intention to tell anyone how to vote, or even to predict what will happen. Rather it’s to layout the seriousness of the situation before us. None of this is new information. The Republicans were aware of the dangers of supporting a candidate who was facing multiple indictments. Yet almost none of the party’s leadership spoke out against his candidacy. Democrats likewise failed to push back against Biden’s decision to run for re-election despite his age. All indications are we are slow walking into an unprecedented Constitutional crisis with no clear off ramp.
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