Breaking America

How did we get in this hole, and how do we get out?

Looking at the state of American democracy, things look like a mess.  With social media that can give legs to misinformation, anyone can find “facts” to support what they’re already predisposed to believe.  This makes anyone who disagrees with them seem like either a dupe or a liar. Spinning a misleading narrative to support a political agenda isn’t a new idea.  Yet the depth of mistrust of the other side seems much deeper than in the past. With the twice impeached Trump, election mistrust, and abandoning of political norms, many fear for the future of democracy in America.  Is the danger to our democracy as bad as it feels, and if it is, what’s the cause? Perhaps most importantly, how do we move forward? 

Look to the right

All you have to do is scratch the surface a little to see that the bulk of the misinformation, conspiracy theories and extremist ideologies are coming from right-wing sources.  In fact, you really don’t have to even scratch the surface, Republicans are putting it right out there for everyone to see. In Texas, the Republican party recently declared that Joe Biden is only the “acting” president. That’s in addition to calling for legal discrimination against homosexuals, declaring unrestricted gun access as a “God given right,” and ending birthright citizenship. That’s only a small sampling of the extremist ideology they put in their party platform. This isn’t some obscure group of right-wing radicals, it’s the Republican party of second most populous state in the union.

This isn’t an isolated incident.  Not long after the Texas Republicans adopted their new platform, CPAC, the annual conference of leading conservatives, invited Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to speak at this year’s event.  This was soon after he publicly called on European countries to restrict immigration to avoid “becoming peoples of mixed race.” Rather than condemning the statement and uninviting him, he received a warm reception and met with Donald Trump who also spoke at the conference. Since becoming prime minister in 2010 he has taken control of the media, used the power of the state to suppress opposition and curtailed freedom of speech.  Orban has effectively transformed Hungry from a functioning democracy into an autocracy. None of that seemed to bother the conservative audience at CPAC who gave him an enthusiastic applause. 

Given the acceptance of Orban at CPAC, perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising that so many Republicans are unwilling to accept losing an election.  The Washington Post reported that 54 of 87 Republican nominees for positions with a role in certifying elections in 6 swing states have publicly questioned the results of the 2020 presidential election.  Mainstream Republicans are embracing some dangerously undemocratic principles.  But are the Democrats any better?  The sentiment that both parties are equally bad is widespread on social media.

What about them Dems

To explore this idea, I searched for crazy undemocratic stuff coming from the left.  I looked at the California Democratic platform to see if it was the liberal equivalent to the Texas Republican platform. What I found was a pretty boring document.  It was just stuff about making sure poor children had enough to eat, ensuring minority rights, expanding healthcare and policy items like that rather than grand statements on culture war hot button issues.  I then switched tactics and went to right-wing news outlets to see what they’re worked up about.

I found pay dirt with OAN and NewsMax. They seemed to have plenty of left-wing stuff to be upset about.  The first two items kind of go together, the Mar-a-largo raid and the January 6th committee.  If you accept that the Democratic party is ignoring the rule of law and using their majority to prosecute political enemies, then this would be a serious attack on democracy.  However, that scenario doesn’t hold up too much scrutiny. The FBI tried to avoid the raid by negotiating the return of the items Trump had at Mar-a-Largo.  When he refused, they got a legal search warrant and did in-fact recover classified documents that were U.S. government property. 

The story is similar with the Jan. 6th committee.  An angry mob over running the capital while trying to prevent the certification of the Electoral College vote absolutely requires an investigation.  Republicans could look at Nancy Pelosi rejecting several Republican nominees for the committee as an abuse of power.  But given the rejected members had voiced support for denying the election results, it's easy to understand why they were kept off the committee.

The other story that the right is pointing to as evidence of a left-wing conspiracy to undermine democracy is the Hunter Biden laptop.  They claim the emails from this laptop show that Joe Biden was deeply involved in Hunter’s questionable business dealings in China and Ukraine. This in turn caused Joe Biden to pressure Ukraine to fire the prosecutor that was investigating Hunter.  The FBI then suppressed this story prior to the 2020 election.  Again if true, this would be a serious breach of the public’s trust, perhaps even a crime. 

Once again, the facts don’t support the right’s conspiracy theories.  The emails show Hunter may have introduced one of his business associates to Joe Biden when he was Vice President, but that’s about it.  Joe Biden pressured Ukraine to fire that prosecutor, not because he was investigating corruption, but because he was refusing to investigate corruption.  We didn’t want to give them foreign aid if they were going to use it to line their pockets.  The files do reveal unfavorable information about Hunter.  His personal life was a wreck, and it appears there’s an ongoing investigation into possible tax evasion.  Yet they simply don’t support the charge that Joe Biden did anything wrong.  Rather, it seems Trump loyalists used these emails to carefully twist some facts while withholding others to create a false narrative concerning then candidate Joe Biden.   

Right is wrong

Examining these false claims of liberals destroying American democracy, it becomes clear they represent yet another right-wing attempt to discredit our democratic institutions.  It’s not just conservative media making these false and misleading claims.  Republican politicians are lending them credibility by repeating them as fact.  This coordinated attack on reality has fundamentally warped the Republican party.  We’ve repeatedly seen the few Republican politicians willing to state the obvious, that Joe Biden won the election and that the capital riot was a crime, defeated in primary elections. 

This Republican onslaught on the truth is causing a counter reaction on the left.  I’m seeing more Democrats on Facebook unfriending anyone who is a Republican, assuming Republican equals racist, and automatically believing the worst about Republicans.  The recent overturn of the Roe v. Wade and openly questioning other civil rights that were considered settled law has exacerbated this trend.  In reaction there is increasing pressure on Democrats to do away with the filibuster so they can enshrine these rights in Federal law. This opens the possibility that we could see a whole slew of “rights” that come and go depending on who controls the Federal government. 

Is it worse today?

It's hard not to conclude that the American form of government is under attack.  But is it worse than in the past?  Deep, often bitter partisan divides date back to the founding of our republic.  The greatest threat to our continued existence as a unified country was the Civil War which represented an existential threat to our system of government.  The Great Depression and the partisan divide over Roosevelt’s New Deal proposals certainly tested our Republic as well.  Probably the greatest threat to the continuation of a single undivided America, since the Civil War, was the period of the late 1960s and early 70s.  The riots in the streets, rise of paramilitary groups, assassinations, Nixon’s dirty tricks and eventual resignation had many people asking the same questions about America’s future as today.  

The nation was just as divided during that era as now, yet I think there are some fundamental differences. Although riots affected the 1968 Democratic convention, the elections proceeded without any serious threat and the transfer of power was never in any doubt.  Also importantly, when the House Judiciary Committee voted on the articles of impeachment for Nixon, nearly half of Republicans voted for at least one of the articles. If Nixon hadn’t resigned, it’s likely enough Republicans in the Senate would have voted with the Democrats to convict him.  Although the cases against Trump were just as strong, the Judiciary Committee votes for both impeachments were strictly along party lines.  Even when presented with clear evidence of the President’s guilt, nearly all Republicans put partisan politics over the rule of law.  That doesn’t bode well for America’s future and is something we haven’t seen since the 1800s.

What does all this mean? 

It seems clear to me that the Republicans are the primary instigators of the current threats to American democracy, but so what.  Who’s at fault doesn’t really matter.  With roughly 45% of the country favoring the Democrats and about 40% the Republicans neither side has the juice to force its will on the other.  That’s particularly true when factoring in gerrymandering, the Electoral College and the non-proportional representation in the Senate.  These all tend to favor the Republicans, effectively negating the Democrat’s slim advantage in overall support.

Where do we go from here?

This could play out in a number of ways.  There’s a realistic chance it could fix itself, at least in the short run.  Trump will die.  I mean he’s pretty old.  It’s possible the forces of MAGA Republicanism will fade away over the course of a couple election cycles, not unlike the turmoil of the civil rights era that faded during the Carter and Reagan years.  I’m not very hopeful for this scenario.  The current deep seeded partisan divide didn’t start with Trump, he just recognized it and used it to come to power.  Republican populism has been growing since Reagan which then led to the tea-party movement.  Without an overwhelming voter rejection of anyone associated with this movement, it’s difficult to see it going away.  Based on the down-ballot races in 2020 and projections for 2022, that doesn’t seem likely in the near term, regardless of what happens to Trump personally.

What about the other end of the possibility matrix, a new 21st century civil war for control for the country?  This also seems unlikely, but is more plausible than I ever thought it would be.  Some states have banned government funded travel to states they disagree with politically.  Several Republican states are shipping asylum seekers to Democratic states.  Democratic politicians have openly discussed the possibility of refusing to extradite people accused of abortion related crimes while Republican politicians have speculated about preventing travel between states to obtain an abortion.  If congress eliminates the filibuster, which seems inevitable, it’s not hard to imagine a Republican controlled government passing a nationwide abortion ban or concealed weapon carry law.  Would Democratic states willing comply or would they defy the federal authority? It doesn’t take much imagination to see that type of situation getting out of control.

Like I said, I don’t think that outcome is likely, but lacking a clear renunciation of MAGA Republicanism by voters, avoiding open conflict between Republican and Democratic states may require reimagining American democracy.  State’s rights activists have longed to limit the power of the federal government.  Their vison of a weak federal government with ultimate authority in most matters resting with the states might be the bitter medicine needed to save American democracy.  If Texas wanted to severely limit LGBQT rights, they could.  If California wanted to mandate sweeping LGBQT rights, they could.  This seems likely to result in the mass migration of people to states that align with their ideology, resulting in even more starkly divided political reality.  Yet, without needing to worry about the federal government forcing the other party’s agenda on them, it might allow for peaceful co-existence.

There are numerous ways this alternative vision of America could fall apart.  Environmental laws inherently affect neighboring states and immigration would still be a sticky area.  There would likely be gun smuggling from gun rights states to gun control states.  These gun runners might very well smuggle legalized drugs on their return trip from blue states back to red states. However, unless the parties find some other way to live together the dissolution of the union altogether might be the only alternative.  

Conclusion

My preferred future is one in which voters across the country demand protection of civil rights and refuse to accept any party that embraces conspiracy theories as a means of seizing power. The elections in November might give some glimpse as to which path America is going to stumble down.  But make no doubt about it, if this country doesn’t change direction, the future America is likely to be unrecognizable to the country we’ve known in the past.