DID GAY MARRIAGE CREATE TRUMP? The middle path to saving America

The title of this article poses a provocative question that is likely to put progressives on alert, but try and stay with me. I’ve support same sex marriage since I learned what gay was, but I’m also a political realist. The aim of this article is to examine how to effect lasting societal change without creating a permanent opposition that is dedicated to preventing progress. Warning, there’s not going to be a silver bullet to get Trump supporters hug a political refugee. But in understanding what is likely to provoke extremist movements we can pursue strategies that are less divisive and in the long run, more effective.

This might sound obvious, but it bears saying, you’re more likely to be influenced by someone you like. Trump spent the 30 years prior to running for President building a following who liked his irreverent attitude and jingoistic rhetoric. That combined with the illusion of success created by the reality TV show the Apprentice formed a base of people who were open to buying the message he was selling. Trump is a showman who knows how to exploit a crowd who’s already inclined to believe him. He’s a textbook example of how to sell a lie by attacking anyone who questions him and distorting the truth to make the lie seem plausible.

He gets away with this because 40% of American’s are emotionally invested in Trump and have too great of a cognitive dissonance for reason to persuade otherwise. Everyone has an emotional need to believe they are good and capable, this is crucial for human survival. Otherwise, we would be subject to constant self-doubt and indecision. For Trump’s 40% to accept that they’ve been conned would be a serious blow to their self-image. The illusion that Trump is a brilliant leader who’s draining the swamp is much more soothing to the ego, regardless of the facts in front of their face. This is the psychological exploit that totalitarian leaders have employed for millennia.

Trump’s use of alternative facts has only exacerbated this psychosis among his supporters. We’re all subject to confirmation bias, the searching out of facts that support our previously held beliefs. But with Trump and the right-wing media, people don’t even need to try and fit facts into their beliefs. They are creating new “facts” to fit comfortably in Trump’s fictional narrative. Trump’s minority are less likely to scrutinize these “facts” because they are more emotionally satisfying. I’ve even seen people acknowledge Trump’s distortion of the facts but still cling to them all the same.

But here's the thing about Trump’s strongman tactics, they’ve failed. Yeah, he has a loyal 40%, but there’s a solid 55% that have formed a hard opposition to anything Trump wants to do. That why he’s losing by double digits to an uninspiring Democratic candidate. Taking hard extremist positions endeared Trump to a minority, but at the expense of creating a determined opposition, that’s a public relations failure.

Even while the right-wing in American politics is imploding some on the left-wing seem determined to do the same thing. Biden has a comprehensive slate of common-sense gun restrictions. Yet, the far left doesn’t like a couple of his votes from 30 years ago or that he doesn’t support repealing the 2nd Amendment. To them that makes Biden an unacceptable candidate. It’s like that on a whole slew of issues. Biden will expand Medicare coverage in all 50 states, but the far left won’t accept anyone who doesn’t support Medicare for All. Joe is for criminal justice reform but won’t endorse defunding the police.

I like Bernie Sanders. However, the Bernie or Bust movement is coming from the same psychological place as Trump supporters. They demand a candidate who will tell them exactly what they want to hear even if it’s ultimately a losing position. Even the fact that Bernie Sanders himself has wholeheartedly endorsed Joe Biden doesn’t matter. Their psyche won’t accept that a compromise position might have a better chance of effecting change. The ultimate result of taking such absolutist positions is to ensure no progress is made.

Biden can reach out to 2nd Amendment supporters and say I like to take my shotgun out and go duck hunting too, and I’m not going to take that away from you. That makes background checks and a waiting period a little easier to take. Sure, Trump supporters are desperately trying to make the case that Biden is coming for your guns, but it’s not getting any traction because people know it’s not true. Biden is someone that conservatives can relate to and find themselves nodding their heads when he’s discussing progressive policies that just make common sense. Hillary Clinton could make the exact same argument as Biden, but she came across as a liberal elitist. She could have mandated Confederate bumper stickers on all pickup trucks and Republicans would have found a reason to oppose her.

Joe’s approach works because he’s not pushing an ideological agenda. He listens to what people want and makes progressive policies that the greatest number of people will support. That’s why some of his positions have changed over the years. The consensus among the American people has changed. Trump also isn’t pushing an ideology on America, he doesn’t have one. He doesn’t care about border security or abortion, he cares about being adored by crowds at rallies. He ran for President as a publicity stunt and accidentally got elected. To get the adoration that Trump craves he has to tailor a message to a very homogeneous crowd who basically agree on most issues, that’s why he’s been stuck on 40% his whole Presidency.

There’s an important difference between Trump and Biden though, where Trump is looking for the love of an adoring crowd, Biden is looking to build consensus and workable solutions. That’s not going to get the undying devotion of any one demographic, but it’s also not going to provoke a “never Trump” counter movement either. I stated earlier that someone you like is more likely to influence you than some you don’t. Biden is just a lot easier to like.

Getting back to the title of this article I want to briefly look at two LGBTQ issues that highlight two different approaches to changing attitudes. Same sex marriage and allowing homosexuals to serve in the Military both became political issues in the early 1990s, with a strong majority of Americans opposing both. When Bill Clinton became President, he championed allowing gays in the military. However, the overwhelming opposition led to the compromise of “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.” This allowed homosexuals to serve in the military, but they couldn’t publicly acknowledge their sexual orientation. At best this was an imperfect compromise, however it did a couple of important things. It officially recognized that there were homosexuals in the military and got people used to that idea.

Over the next 25 years (and several wars) people saw that the military operated just fine with homosexuals in their midst. Of course, the fact there were gays and lesbians in the military wasn’t exactly new, but it removed the illusion that they didn’t exist. By the time President Obama changed the policy to allow homosexuals to openly serve there really wasn’t much push back to the policy. Today close to 85% of Americans support the right of homosexuals to serve in the military. We shouldn’t ignore that pain of those who had to live in the closet under “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell,” but that imperfect policy allowed for the orderly transition to a service that doesn’t discriminate based on sexual orientation.

Same sex marriage took a very different route to legal recognition. It was also widely unpopular in the early 1990s but gradually took a more partisan tone as the Democratic party became more accepting of the idea. By the time President Obama became President the country was deeply divided on the issue of same sex marriage. It was legal in many left leaning states and generally not recognized in more conservative states. The official position of the Democrats was a compromise of recognizing domestic partnerships that would have the same legal rights as a marriage, but under a different name. The idea being that although not perfect, the compromise of a domestic partnership law would let conservatives ease into the idea the world wouldn’t end if we legally recognized same sex relationships. After 15 or 20 years opposing same sex marriage would just seem silly.

The Supreme Court decision in Obergefell v. Hodges however skipped that transition period and went straight to full marriage equality. While I, like most progressives, celebrated this decision there was an inevitable counter movement that was tailor made for Trump to exploit. The Obergefell decision reinforced a sense among a sizable portion of the electorate that the liberal elite was stacking the deck against them. Now, over 5 years since the Obergefell decision about a third of Americans and a majority of Republicans continue to not support marriage equality. Although Trump hasn’t specifically made same sex marriage one of his marquee issues, he has canalized on the anger and disillusionment caused by that decision.

I’m not suggesting that if Biden is elected that Congress will hold hands and sing Kumbaya on the House floor. There will still be genuine policy disagreements and political motivations. The polarizing hate that gave rise to Trump won’t disappear overnight. However, not having Trump pouring gas on the flames will reduce the impetus to automatically oppose anything the other party is for, even when it works against their own self-interest. In the wake of the Coronavirus and the ensuing recession there’s never been a time when it was more important for Congress’ to find a way to put aside politics and get something done, even if only for enlightened self-interest. Those on both the right and left wings can find reasons to not support Joe Biden if that’s what they’re looking for. That sense of self-righteous idealism feels great. But we have a stack of crises to overcome, and Trump is not up to the job. So, did gay marriage create President Trump? Maybe, the existential crisis it created in the minds of many Republicans certainly opened the door for Trump blunder through. But right now, we need the guy who spent a career finding common ground to get shit done. We need Joe Biden.