With Tears Dried, Where Do Pete's Supporters Go Now

 

As I started considering my vote for the 2020 Democratic primaries last spring, I was an early supporter of Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker. When I first heard of Pete Buttigieg, I thought he was just some small-time politician looking to make a name for himself so he could run for Senate in a couple years. With so many other candidates in the field I didn’t really pay him much thought. I never would have believed that nine months later I’d be fighting back tears as he suspended his campaign, yet here we are. As Booker and other candidates dropped out of the race, I started listening to Pete and every time I heard him speak, I liked him more. I still like Warren as well, but I’ve become concerned that some of her plans are either politically impossible or just unworkable, and regardless she’s so far down in the polls it seems difficult to see how she’s going to get the nomination. Then finally about a month ago it hit me that Pete’s youth and lack of Washington experience weren’t liabilities, they were the things that were going to get him elected, and I went all in for President Buttigieg.

So, after a month of trying to sway people over to Pete’s campaign I was as shocked as anyone yesterday when I heard the announcement that Pete was dropping out of the race. I mean he still had 6 million in the campaign account and only 2 days until Super Tuesday, why would he drop out then, it seemed crazy. But after the initial shock of the announcement wore off, I started seeing it in a different light. Pete is an insightful person who is guided by reality and the truth. A year ago he saw an opening in the race for White House that no one else saw. In a race with over 20 declared candidates, all of whom were more experienced and more known than himself, he recognized there was a desire in the electorate for a fresh face, an outsider who would deliver a slate of realistic policies and not just promise the world to everyone. He was right, and that message found an audience. It was that same insight that came into focus Sunday when he made the decision withdraw from the race, despite being third in the delegate count. His showing in South Carolina was disappointing and looking at the polls for Super Tuesday he’s consistently between third and fifth, that doesn’t get you the nomination.

As someone who’s run and lost an election (a county commissioner election in 2018) I know how emotionally invested you get in the race. But Pete was able to step back, see the big picture of why he was running, and made the best decision to accomplish that goal based on the truth of the situation. He wasn’t going to win, and his presence in the race was splitting the anti-Sanders vote and likely making Trump’s re-election more probable. This decision was probably even bolder than his decision to run in the first place, and ironically, goes to show why he would have been such a great President. I have to think that even people who weren’t on board with his campaign had to take a step back and go, whoa, that was a ballsy move to make.

But now that Pete’s out of the race, what now? Buttigieg’s decision to suspend his campaign has transformed the race. Only days ago there were seven candidates on the stage at the Charleston Democratic debate. Officially four of those candidates are still in the race with Tom Steyer and Amy Klobuchar also bowing out of the race. Realistically based on the first 4 contests and the polls for Super Tuesday, it seems Warren has an even less likely path to the nomination than Pete. Unless she wins some states on Tuesday, her options are going to be drop out or become irrelevant. In reality it’s

now a three-person race, Bloomberg, who will appear on his first ballot on Tuesday, Biden and Sanders. Based on what my Democratic friends are telling me and what I’m seeing in the polls, I don’t think there’s a place on the Democratic ticket for a New York billionaire, or really any billionaire. Bloomberg didn’t become a billionaire by flights of fancy, he not leading in any polls and it’s hard to see how his debate performances have helped him. Hopefully the reality of the election results will overcome his Mt. Rushmore sized ego and he’ll come to see the same reality that Pete did this weekend and drop out. We’ll see where we’re standing after Tuesday, but it looks like we’re going from seven candidates to effectively two.

Biden or Sanders, Sanders or Biden, that is the question. Frankly there are serious problems with both of these candidates. Both have 50 years of public statements and actions to be used against them in November. Between the two, Sanders is more likely to bring out a more passionate response, both from supporters and detractors. Only Trump can rival Sanders in terms of having the most blindly loyal followers. However, Sander’s past defense of socialism and communism sends up red flags for a lot of moderates and independents. Sanders has been remarkedly unsuccessful at actually accomplishing anything in Congress, largely because he’s out of step with mainstream Democrats, there’s no reason to believe that will change if he becomes President. Biden on the other hand has a long track record of working with people, even people he disagrees with, to make tangible progress. After four years of Trump, there’s going to be a lot that needs done, and Biden is the guy who’s more likely to get it done.

During Pete’s speech suspending his campaign he didn’t make any explicit endorsement for another candidate. But his decision to withdraw before Super Tuesday is a clear implicit endorsement for Biden. If Buttigieg wanted to see Sanders get the nomination, there was no reason to get out before Tuesday’s primaries. Pete came to see he was splitting the traditional, pragmatic wing of the party and by getting out he sent a clear signal that it was time to coalesce around Biden as the standard bearer for the party. In fact, Pete’s withdraw could very likely sway Texas for Biden, the latest poll showed Joe and Bernie tied in that state. Pete has also talked about the effect of a Sander’s nomination on down ballot Democrats. The fear of a far-left wing Sanders’ administration is likely to hurt Democratic congressional candidates in swing districts. The reassuring presence of Joe Biden on the ticket is likely to also reassure moderates and independents that’s it’s safe to vote on Democratic candidates up and down the ballot.

Donald Trump has become emboldened since his impeachment acquittal. Even if the Democrats take the Senate, without a two-thirds majority that are willing to hold him accountable, there’s no telling how much havoc he can cause. Trump doesn’t feel he’s restrained by respect for traditional or even legal restraints on the Presidency. A re-election would only be a validation of Trump’s warped view of the Presidency. I’ll support the nominee whoever it is, but Biden is the candidate who’s most likely to win the White House and bring the Senate and House of Representatives along to undo the damage Trump has done to this country.