Age of Transformation

 

I recently wrote a pair of articles on the Mexican Revolution (1910-1920), the first summarized the events of the Revolution while the second looked at the longer-term results of it. Today I want to take a step back and look at the larger context in which this Revolution took place. This decade long event occurred in one of the most turbulent and transformational times in world history and the Mexican Revolution was one small part of that story. I also want to examine how that period of history relates to our modern world today.

To understand this decade, you must consider what came before it. A century before England was the only industrialized country on earth, most merchandise was still hand crafted by skill workers. If you wanted to travel from one place to another you had to rely on natural forces, mainly animal or wind power; and the only way to transmit a message to someone was to write it down on a piece of paper and have someone physically deliver it to the recipient. The century from 1810 to 1910 saw the lives of average people change more than they had changed in the previous millennium. The initial promise of the industrial age to improve the lives of people had turned into a nightmare of 12-hour shifts for near starvation wages, unsafe products, child labor and extreme wealth gap between the rich and poor. Workers saw the government routinely backing corporations over the basic rights of workers and many began to question the fundamental ideas behind capitalism.

It was seemingly Karl Marx’s prediction of the unsustainability of capitalism coming true before the eyes of the world. This decade saw the Communist Revolution in Russia and the rise of socialism in many other parts of the world. Even in America, first the People’s Party gained a significant share of the vote in the 1890s and later the Socialist party under Eugene Debs polled between 3% and 6% between 1904 and 1920. Adding to the questioning of the status quo was World War I which left millions dead and injured. Many who fought in this seemingly pointless war came away believing the only people who had profited were the industrialists and having a sense that they had more in common with the soldiers on the other side of the trenches than those who were sending them ow to die in France. There was a sense in many places around the world that the capitalist system had failed to meet the needs of the people and it was time for change. This change came in different forms in different places but was a global phenomenon that played out over the course the 30 years that followed the World War I.

This is the world in which the Mexican Revolution unfolded. Although it wasn’t a fundamentally Marxist Revolution, there was no doubt that it had socialist elements to it. Most Mexicans believed their nation had been the victim of corporate greed and that the people needed to take back their

country. This culminated in the nationalization of the country’s industries in the 1930s and 40s and land redistribution to the peasants.

Generally, most countries went in one of three directions, some like Russia and China became full communist states. Others like Germany, Italy and Spain had a backlash to internal socialist movements and turned towards fascist dictators. Finally, countries like America, Britain, France and Mexico were able to implement enough reforms to avoid either of the two extremes although there were considerable variations on the balance these nations landed on.

So hopefully your thinking this is interesting but what does it have to do with today’s world? I think we are also living in a transformational time with great uncertainty of how it will play out. Today the transformation involves information, robotics and artificial intelligence (AI) rather than the Industrial Revolution. I’m just old enough to remember the time prior to the beginning of this new age. When I was a kid, when you watched TV your options were what ever happened to be on the three networks at that moment, getting even basic information like when was the Mexican Revolution meant a trip to the library unless you happened to have a set of encyclopedias and most people still drove American cars made by American workers in Detroit.

With recent advancements in AI and robotics the possibility that most jobs can be either significantly reduced or eliminated is a real possibility. News agencies are using AI to write formulaic news stories, a lot of tasks that nurses, doctors and lawyers used to do are being automated, truck drivers and pilots could become things of the past, and online and computer education threatens the teaching career field. Some might think this is farfetched, but we are in the early days of an AI and robotics revolution. This has the potential to create either a new era of increased human happiness and personal fulfillment or a dystopian world of haves and have nots.

The problem of technology taking jobs isn’t new, it takes far fewer people to make a car today than it did 50 years ago. And some economists think this whole automation problem isn’t a problem at all. They argue that just like in the past when automation took some jobs, other jobs developed leaving an overall more efficient economy, and they may be correct. However, in the past automation tended to be more focused on certain areas of the economy and many of the people who lost manufacturing jobs transitioned to the services portion of the economy. The technology that has been developed over the last decade and will almost certainly become common place over the next 20 or 30 years has the potential to affect nearly every sector of the economy all at once.

We are only starting to comprehend the transformational implications this could have on society. Maybe 50 years from now working 20 hours per week will be considered full-time employment or the retirement age will be 40. Some have proposed a universal livable income just for existing and those who want work can take the remaining jobs and make extra. Perhaps those who don’t work could contribute to society by volunteering to work with at risk kids or the elderly or other endeavors that don’t generate profit but benefit from the human touch.

Some will argue this sounds like socialism, but incrementally lowering the work week isn’t socialism, it’s a continuation of what was accomplished with the 40-hour work week. Even the universal livable wage, which might seem like socialism really has its roots in capitalism. After all, capitalism needs consumers, but if there aren’t jobs where do the consumers come from. I’m not necessarily advocating for any particular policies at this point, only raising the inevitable questions that will come from the increasing use of these technologies. If we want to make this future technology work for us it will require people to create policies to protect the interest of the people. Capitalism is great at innovation and finding production efficiencies, it’s less adept and increasing human happiness.